Beginners Guide for Business and Financial

Posts Tagged ‘nasdaq 100’

Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is a methodology for analysis of a company as a viable stock that you want to hold for long term. Fundamental analysis is more widespread in the world of investing since you are going to hold your companies for 10 to 20 years, you do not wish that your companies go bankrupt the next day. Some of the common ratios used are P/E ratios (price earnings ratios) which measures the relative price of the stock to the earnings of the company, the EPS (earnings per share), the debt equity ratio and tons of other ratios.

Although I have spent considerable time studying such ratios I discovered that you do not really need such information to be successful in day trading. I repeat, fundamental analysis plays a marginal role in day trading. In fact, most of the time, I don’t follow it at all. If you still have reservations about ignoring fundamental analysis, I recommend trading ETFs (exchange traded funds) such as QQQQ which mirrors the movement of the NASDAQ 100. In essence, you are actually trading the index like a normal stock. Indexes usually have a huge number of stocks in them, making them less susceptible to company specific news. However if you are paranoid, then you might still want to follow the news of the major companies in the index.

here is no lack of information and no end to analysis. Knowing the fundamentals might seem cool when you discuss company so and so over a cocktail party, but it will not help you rip money off Wall Street in day trading. Being able to remove fundamental analysis from the decision making process is also one of the reasons why I recommend trading Emini index futures.

Paper Trading: Don’t Ever Underestimate it!
Paper trading refers to trading with virtual money, you do not use real money. You jot down in your notebook when you bought at what price and why. When you sell, you record in your notebook again why you sold and calculate the profit or loss associated with the trade.

If you cannot make money by paper trading, you can forget about making money in real trading. Always test a new trading idea with paper trading first before using real money. Also start with paper trading after a long period of break, to help you get back in touch with trading.

Although there is very little difference between paper trading and real trading in Emini, real trading is subjected to slippage and psychological factors come into play when you are using real money. Do not underestimate the impact of psychological factors on your trading. After you have a reasonable method and money management techniques, it is the psychological factors which will determine whether you make a profit or loss.

Some traders have created software to paper trade. You hit the buttons like you are doing real trading but only virtual money is involved and no real cash is used. The system will record down the time, price, symbol and the position opened or closed. This saves you the trouble of keeping a paper record.

What are Index Futures?
Future contracts originate from commodity trading. A future contract is an obligation to buy/sell a certain quantity of commodity at a specific date for a specific price determined at the outset of the contract. Future contracts are frequently used for hedging risks and also for speculation.

For example, with the recent hike in oil prices, an airline company which uses a lot of fuel might want to hedge it’s exposure to oil prices through the purchase of oil futures. If the price of oil is $60 now and is expected to go up to $70 within 3 months, the airline would hedge its exposure by purchasing the 3 month future contracts so long as the agreed price is less than $70.

Oil prices now $60
Expected oil price in 3 mth’s time (by airline) $70
Price of 3 mth oil contract (by oil producer) $68
Actual price 3 mths later $65

Let’s assume the airline can find an oil producer willing to sell oil 3 month later for $68, the company would enter a futures agreement with this oil producer for delivery of a certain quantity of oil in 3 month’s time. If the price of oil falls to $65, the airline still has to purchase at the agreed price of $68. But what propelled the airline to enter the futures contract in the first place is its expectations of future oil prices going up to $70 in 3 months and buying at a price below $70 (3 months later) seemed reasonable to the company.

Index futures are cash settled, there is no physical delivery of commodity as in the case of wheat, corn, etc. Although index futures can also be held for the long term, the time span we are concentrating on is a day. We are using the index futures as a vehicle for speculation and not for hedging as in the case of the airline company.

What is the Emini S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100?
NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 index futures is listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and trades on the Globex electronic system. CME acts as the counter party for each trade, hence if you short futures, CME will be taking the long position and vice versa.

NASDAQ 100 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the NASDAQ 100 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $20 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.5 points which is equivalent to $10.

S&P 500 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the S&P 500 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $50 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.25 points which is equivalent to $12.50.

Globex opens from 16:30(EST) on weekdays and 18:00(EST) on Sundays and public holidays. The closing time is 16:15(EST) on all days. However, there will be a scheduled maintenance of Globex from 17:30 till 18:00 (Monday through Thursday, nightly). I know the timings can be quite complicated, however as day traders, we are mostly concerned with trading when the market is opened as we have to capitalize on the higher liquidity available. I do not recommend entering trades after market hours, due to low volume which leads to slippage. The time span you have to concentrate on is really the market opening hours from 9:30 till 16:15 (EST).

More information regarding the contract specification of the Emini can be found on CME’s website.

symbols for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Emini index futures. Both the NQ and ES emini contracts have expiry months in March, June, September and December which are denoted by the letters “H”, “M”, “U”, “Z” respectively. Hence NQ05Z will represent the NASDAQ 100 emini contract with expiry month in December 2010. Similarly, ES06H will be the symbol for an S&P 500 emini contract with expiry month in March 2011.

March H
June M
September U
December Z